In the wake of last Friday’s coordinated terrorist attacks in Paris, we at Meyer Capital Group extend our thoughts and sympathies to the victims, their families and the people of France. This was a terrible tragedy, a senseless crime and the worst terrorist attack suffered in Europe in 10 years.
These transnational terrorist events have not only raised the global risk levels of further terrorist actions, but will also produce behavioral changes geopolitically and locally. We are already seeing the pulling together of a more coordinated global action against ISIS by the western world, although attempting to balance national security challenges against values important to open societies will be difficult. Terrorists play by no rules familiar to most lawmakers and military members. Thus Europe may bear the brunt of change and would appear to be the most vulnerable to the impact of the increased risk levels on the broad economy, country politics, and societal reaction within the diverse elements of the population.
Kim Wallace of RenMac made the observation this past weekend that 3% of the 7.3 billion people in the world are emigrating from developing countries to more developed ones. With the turmoil in the Middle East in particular, Europe, with a more open door policy—at least until now—is bearing the brunt of the disruptive emigration on its economies, its existing population and the social issues surrounding the clash of cultures.
There is much more that could be said regarding what has happened this past week and certainly opinions that could be expressed. I leave that to the op-ed contributors. Here is a sample:
Smashing ISIS After The French Bombings Will Be A Great Challenge
Why The Paris Attacks Could Mark The Beginning of the End for ISIS
It is hard enough trying to make sense about what this means for the markets. Almost all of these actions would tend to support a slowdown in activity in the euro region from a combination of the disruption caused by the terrorist action within Europe, the political dysfunction that may occur, and the actual reduction of incoming travel to the region. This is against a backdrop of the possibility that the decline in commodities is an indication of even slower global growth as opposed to simply an oversupply situation caused by the continued production of various hard commodities and oil as long as the operating economics provide cash flow to service debt and cover other costs. Needless to say…
Stay Tuned, Stay Hedged & Stay Patient! {TJM}
Disclosure
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Meyer Capital Group), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Meyer Capital Group. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Meyer Capital Group is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Meyer Capital Group’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.