I am going to get right to the business of investing today, but first a must watch video.
INSPIRATIONAL Video of the Day: Kate, Camille, Cancer & CrossFit | Meet Kate Foster, 13, who has battled Leukemia twice, lost a leg & offers such hope with a fantastic attitude and outlook on life! A very special girl who is wise beyond her years and she gets to meet her favorite CrossFit competitor – Camille Leblanc-Bazinet!
“The power to have all powers!” ~Kate FosterWorld Water Day!
Rebuffs Cyprus, EU Awaits Bailout Plan B
- Volatility is once again closing in on multi-year lows.
- While the US economy is healing, US earnings are not advancing as quickly as market averages.
- Most of this year’s gains have been driven by higher valuations, rather than higher earnings.
though still cheap relative to bonds and cash, aren’t as compelling as
they were last fall. US equities now trade at a little more than 14x
next year’s estimated earnings, versus just about 12.5x last fall.
- Market Vane bullish consensus rises to 69% – highest level since the 2007 market peak.
Dash For Trash Outperforms Everything In 2013
- The most shorted stocks in the Russell 3000 have outperformed by nearly 12%!
- The CCC or Lower Rated bonds now yield just 10% versus 16% average!
- High Yield Bond Shorts as confident as October 2007
CHART: Do You Believe European Bonds or Stocks
CHART: All 10 Sectors Are Overbought
Restaurant Sales Haven’t Looked Like This Since The Start Of The Last Recession
Note that this the sharpest two-month decline since January-February of 2008, just as the recession was getting rolling. Only once in the 2002-2007 economic expansion did we see such a back-to-back decline, and only three times in the 1993-2000 up-cycle, and not once (!) in the super-long 1982-1990 growth era — so these are very rare outside of recessions.
CHART: Insider Selling IS NOT A Sell Signal
Follow The Money
Fund investors poured a net $41 billion into stock funds in January, but
it will take a lot more to make up for the $548 billion they liquidated
from stock funds between 2008 and 2012, according to Kiplinger. While
optimism in the stock market appears to be rising, there is still
evidence that some retail investors, in particular, are oblivious to
what is transpiring. A survey by the Edward Jones brokerage firm in
December found that nearly 50% of Americans thought the market was
either down or flat in 2012. The S&P 500 ended up posting a total
return of 16.0% in 2012. Even those individuals with a low tolerance for
risk should still maintain some exposure to equities, according to
Morningstar. Using a target date fund approach, it advocates that a
conservative investor already retired should keep 25% of their assets in
stocks, while an aggressive investor looking to retire around 2045
should take their exposure to equities up to 93%.
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