Emerging Issues?
The emerging issue on today’s thread is with emerging markets. We have always tracked mutual fund flows as a way to track retail investor sentiment and the potential for overheated or panic market conditions. …
Monthly Archives: July 2009
Anatomy of a Stock Market Rally
In looking at the return attribution of the stock market rally that commenced on July 10 we find a bit of short covering, bargin hunting and risk taking. This should not come as a surprise as investors have been waiting for a pullback and were set-up accordingly. It looked as if this was going to occur at the end of June; however, in his usual way, Mr. Market turned on a dime after a paltry 6.7% correction. This led to buying of stocks by those who were short, buying of value stocks for those managers who needed to deploy cash …
Mixed Signals Continue
I will continue the theme of my most recent quarterly newsletter – our outlook is mixed. For all of the headwinds that global economies face, there are many reasons why it is a dangerous option to avoid equities – even if it is from a sugar rush of stimulus and government programs. Well the mixed messages continue from the technical side of the isle. …
Less Bad Is No Longer Good Enough
As we enter the second half of 2009, investors should adopt a new mantra, ‘less bad is no longer good enough.’ Hopefully this phrase will take the place of the oft overused term ‘green shoots.’ After the wonderful rally we have experienced since the early March lows the fear of failure should be replaced with the fear of weak revenue and GDP growth. Investors’ focus should be increasingly away from the inventory restocking-led rebound and towards the issue of the sustainability of the recovery. …
UK Consumer Gearing
Just a quick fact today as I am trying to truncate my newsletter down to 2,500 words. I wanted to make the U.S. consumer feel a bit better tonight – but only in a relative sense. …