Happy Thanksgiving
I wanted to provide you with a few quick statistics today that I have compiled over the past few weeks for you to chew on this Thanksgiving eve. …
Monthly Archives: November 2009
Riding The Rails
No I am not referring to my son’s Thomas the Train obsession, but some very interesting statistics on our railroads. After Warren Buffett bought the 74% of Burlington Northern (BNI) he doesn’t
already own (at a 30% premium) this month he quipped, “It is because my Dad did not buy me that train set when I was a child!” It seems that no matter what age we have an obsession with the rails. I
wanted to give you the good, the bad and the ugly on the rails and what they mean to our economy.
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Inflation Update
With what seems to be subdued inflationary reports, I wanted to highlight a few items for future consideration. On the heels of muted PPI and CPI date, I must warn readers to continue to monitor
‘cash’ inflation.
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Potential Outcomes
Sticking with the theme from yesterday I wanted to explore another concept know if behavioral finance circles as recency bias. In short, investor’s tend to extrapolate the current market environment
into the future and fail to assess the potential risk for a reversal. This can be true in both bull and bear markets, thus leading one be too pessimistic as markets drop and conversely too optimistic
as markets rise.
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Looking For The Turn
After reading Jason Zweig’s article this weekend in The Wall Street Journal on “conformation bias” I wanted to provide to you a clue to monitor the current market rally. With today’s gallop higher,
the market is pricing in not only an economic recovery, but a substantial recovery in corporate profits and revenue growth in 2010. While we are skeptical of current valuations, I thought I would
provide some insights into the non-confirmation thesis of this recent move higher.
There are several indicators to monitor in this regard, from The Dow Transports non-confirmation of …