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Monthly Archives: September 2019

A Tale As Old As Time

/ Timothy McGeeney /

We are seeing this in the GM worker strike. As companies make more in profits, labor wants their share of the pie. This dynamic has a ripple effect we see in the later part of the cycle. As explained by Christian Drake: “If nominal wage growth is rising faster than nominal GDP, then labor’s share

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Thought of the Day

/ Timothy McGeeney /

“You can, of course, pay too much for even the best of businesses…. Investors making purchases in an overheated market need to recognize that it may often take an extended period for the value of even an outstanding company to catch up with the price they paid. A far more serious problem occurs when the

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Rate Cuts Are No Panacea

/ Timothy McGeeney /

This is your daily reminder that as the 4th quarter gets underway economic cycles still matter. More than tweets, “trade deals” and any other headlines CNBC throws at you. As you can see in my Chart of the Day, the last two rate cut cycles have not been friendly to the equity markets. Don’t forget

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Even Returns

/ Timothy McGeeney /

In my Chart of the Day, you can see that after several years of the stock market being driven by only a handful of companies, this divergence has reverted back to the mean. While this does not factor in the last two quarters, it gives you a sense that diversification across market capitalization may finally

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Right On Cue

/ Timothy McGeeney /

Jefferies’ merchant banking unit wrote down the value of its investment in We Co. by $146 million. As I posted my thoughts on WeWork IWork, the largest monetary losers in this will not be the buyers of the IPO (aka the retail public) since that has been delayed, but all of the early investors. Now

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